We construct a cross-country dataset on female human capital inequality. Unlike the existing literature that primarily
focuses on the average years of women's education, we use this dataset to examine the relationship between female human
capital inequality and infant mortality. We show that higher education inequality among women, measured by the Gini
coefficient, leads to substantially higher infant mortality. This finding is robust to various alternative specifications
and subsamples considered. We also consider whether this channel is important in explaining growth. Growth regressions
show favorable but weak evidence that education inequality among women is associated negatively with growth via its effect
on infant mortality. Our main results have implications related to the policy question on the optimal allocation of
educational subsidies. If infant mortality reduction is a priority for policy makers, then educating the least educated
women first seems to be an effective (and also simple) policy recommendation.
We propose an economic theory of infectious disease transmission and rational behavior.
Diseases are costly due to mortality (premature death) and morbidity
(lower productivity and quality of life). The theory offers three main insights.
First, higher disease prevalence implies lower saving-investment propensity.
Preventive behavior can partially offset this when the prevalence rate and negative
disease externality are relatively low. Secondly, infectious diseases can generate a
low-growth trap where income alone cannot push an economy out of underdevelopment.
This is distinctly different from development traps in the existing literature. Since
income per se does not cause health in this equilibrium, successful interventions have
to be health specific. Thirdly, a more favorable disease ecology propels the economy
to a higher growth path where health and income co-evolve and infectious diseases
disappear. Even so, diseases significantly slow down convergence. These results
suggest the empirical relationship between health and income at the aggregate level
may be more nuanced than realized.
This paper sheds new light on the impact of AIDS on cross-country income levels. We consider new UNAIDS/WHO
data on officially reported AIDS cases for a panel of 89 countries over a 15 year period from 1986-2000 during
which AIDS has spread across the world. These data are used to estimate cross-country level regressions employing
panel data techniques. Our findings are as follows: First, when using the entire sample of countries we find that
AIDS has a negative albeit marginally significant effect on the level of income. Second, when we control for regional
effects we show that this negative effect is primarily driven by the sub-Sahara Africa and Latin America subsamples.
Third, using AIDS data by age group, we find that the disease has a significantly negative impact on income only via
infected people between the ages 16 and 34. Finally, while the economic impact of AIDS is negative and statistically
significant, its economic significance measured by the estimated size of the AIDS coefficient is quite small.
Does medical technology originating in countries close to the technology frontier have a significant
impact on health outcomes in countries distant from this frontier? This paper considers a framework where
lagging countries may benefit from medical technology (a result of research and development by countries
close to the frontier) that is embodied in medical imports or diffuses in the form of ideas. Using a novel
dataset from a cross-section of 73 technology-importing countries, we show that medical technology diffusion
is an important contributor to improved health status, as measured by life expectancy and mortality rates.
This paper compares transitional dynamics in two alternative R&D non-scale growth models, one with endogenous
human capital and the other without. We show that focusing on the asymptotic speed of convergence to discriminate
between the two models' performance can be misleading. Our analysis suggests that a careful study of the entire
adjustment paths predicted by alternative growth models starting far away from the balanced growth path is
required in order to successfully discriminate among them.
This paper constructs an R&D non-scale growth model that includes endogenous human capital. The
goal is to take the model's implications to the data once the complementarity between technology
and human capital, commonly found in the empirical literature, is taken into account. Our model
suggests that cross-sector labor movements induced by the complementarity between human capital
and technology can be a key factor in replicating and explaining development experiences such as
those of Japan and South Korea. In particular it is shown that the the adjustment paths of output
growth, investment rates, interest rates, and labor shares implied by the proposed model are consistent
with empirical evidence.
The growth literature has not yet established how data on education should be introduced
in theories involving human capital. Early work used enrolment rates as a
proxy of human capital whereas more recently it has utilized measures of average education
al attainment taking advantage of new data sets. This paper examines alternative specifications
of human capital that may match up with the existing data on education. First, we present
a standard neoclassical two-sector growth model that adopts a human capital specification
proposed in recent papers. In this model the fraction of individual's time endowment in
school is viewed as an investment rate. We show that the optimally chosen educational
attainment predicted by the calibrated model is very high and does not correspond to the
data. Next, we consider two extensions of the basic model: (a) allow for different elasticities
of substitution between skilled and unskilled labor, (b) introduce work experience. We find that
neither of the two extensions are able to generate plausible predictions. Finally, we propose an
alternative specification of human capital based on a law of motion of educational attainment that
successfully matches up with the data.
This paper studies the transition dynamics predictions of an R&D-based growth model, and evaluates
their performance in explaining income disparities across nations. We find that the fraction of the
observed cross-country income variation explained by the transitional dynamics of the model is as large
as the one accounted by existing steady-state level regressions. Our results suggest that the traditional
view of a world in which nations move along their distinct balanced-growth paths is as likely as the one
in which countries move along adjustment paths toward a common (very long-run) steady state.
This paper follows Benhabib and Spiegel (1994) in examining the effect of human
capital accumulation on economic growth. The paper is innovative in two ways.
First, it takes the R&D-based models more seriously. This delivers more
structural specifications in which human capital affects growth as an input of final
output and as a catalyst of technological innovation and imitation. Second, due to
data availability it is possible
to disaggregate human capital and assign different roles to primary and post-primary
education. Regression estimates obtained from these alternative specifications suggest
that the relative contribution of human capital to technology adoption and final output
production vary by country wealth. More importantly, regression estimates suggest that
primary education contributes mainly to production of final output, whereas post-primary
education contributes mainly to adoption and innovation of technology.
Motivated by recent empirical evidence this paper extends a non-scale R&D
growth model to allow for technological imitation in addition to innovation.
It is shown that a simple modification of the standard R&D equation results
in a more general model that can explain not only the growth process of developed
countries that mostly innovate, but also the growth process of developing countries
that mostly imitate.
This paper explores a model in which growth is determined by a
combination of human capital and technology adoption. At the heart of the
model is the notion of "contiguous knowledge" - the idea that knowledge
spreads out a certain distance. Because of this property of knowledge,
a developing country can adopt existing technology only when it is
sufficiently close to the technological frontier. The nature of the model
is optimistic in that technology gaps present an opportunity for developing
countries that are relatively close to the frontier to achieve rapid growth
through technology adoption. Unlike the neoclassical growth model however,
the predictions of the model are rather pessimistic for countries that are
far away from the frontier making them unable to take advantage of imitation.
As a result, the model is able to account both for rapid growth episodes as well
as economic stagnation.
We construct a cross-country dataset on female human capital inequality. Unlike the existing literature that primarily
focuses on the average years of women's education, we use this dataset to examine the relationship between female human
capital inequality and infant mortality. We show that higher education inequality among women, measured by the Gini
coefficient, leads to substantially higher infant mortality. This finding is robust to various alternative specifications
and subsamples considered. We also consider whether this channel is important in explaining growth. Growth regressions
show favorable but weak evidence that education inequality among women is associated negatively with growth via its effect
on infant mortality. Our main results have implications related to the policy question on the optimal allocation of
educational subsidies. If infant mortality reduction is a priority for policy makers, then educating the least educated
women first seems to be an effective (and also simple) policy recommendation.
Economic growth has been a showcase of model uncertainty, given the many competing
theories and candidate regressors that have been proposed to explain growth. Bayesian
Model Averaging (BMA) addresses model uncertainty as part of the empirical strategy,
but its implementation is subject to the choice of priors: the priors for the
parameters in each model, and the prior over the model space. For a well-known
growth dataset, we show that model choice can be sensitive to the prior specification,
but that economic significance (model-averaged inference about regression coefficients)
is quite robust to the choice of prior. We provide a procedure to assess priors in
terms of their predictive performance. The Unit Information Prior, combined with a
uniform model prior outperformed other popular priors in the growth dataset and in
simulated data. It also identified the richest set of growth determinants, supporting
several new growth theories. We also show that there is a tradeoff between model and
parameter priors, so that the results of reducing prior expected model size and
increasing prior parameter variance are similar. Our branch-and-bound algorithm
for implementing BMA was faster than the alternative coin flip importance sampling
and MC3 algorithms, and was also more successful in identifying the best model.
Trade theories covering Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are as diverse as the literature in search of their
empirical support. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories,
we introduce Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature. BMA minimizes the sum of Type I and Type
II error, the mean squared error, and generates predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance. Once
model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy, we report clear evidence of Trade Creation, Trade
Diversion, and Open Bloc effects. After controlling for natural trading partner effects, Trade Creation is weaker –
except for the EU. To calculate the actual effects of PTAs on trade flows we show that the analysis must be
comprehensive: it must control for Trade Creation and Diversion as well as all possible PTAs. Several prominent
control variables are also shown to be robustly related to Trade Creation; they relate to factor endowments and
economic policy.
We investigate the heterogeneous effects of initial conditions on post-World War II growth in sub-
Saharan Africa. Our empirical strategy is based on Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) that allows us to
consider both model uncertainty (about the preferred theory and model) and parameter heterogeneity
(that countries are not homogeneous objects) into an internally coherent estimation procedure. Our main
?nding is that the impact of initial conditions on subsequent growth in sub-Saharan Africa is distinct.
How and why these initial conditions have a differential effect on this region is examined.
This paper takes a fresh look into Africa's growth experience by using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)
methodology. BMA enables us to consider a large number of potential explanatory variables and sort out which
of these variable can effectively explain Africa's growth experience. Posterior coefficient estimates reveal
that key engines of growth in Africa are substantially different from those in the rest of the world. More
precisely, it is shown that mining, primary exports and initial primary education exerted differential effect
on African growth. These results are examined in relation to the existing literature.
We investigate country heterogeneity in cross-country growth regressions. In contrast to the previous literature
that focuses on low-income countries, this study also highlights growth determinants in high-income (OECD) countries.
We introduce Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) to address not only potential parameter heterogeneity, but also
the model uncertainty inherent in growth regressions. IBMA is essential to our estimation because the simultaneous
consideration of model uncertainty and parameter heterogeneity in standard growth regressions increases the number of
candidate regressors beyond the processing capacity of ordinary BMA algorithms.
Our analysis generates three results that strongly support different dimensions of parameter heterogeneity.
First, while a large number of regressors can be identified as growth determinants in Non-OECD countries, the
same regressors are irrelevant for OECD countries. Second, Non-OECD countries and the global sample feature only
a handful of common growth determinants. Third, and most devastatingly, the long list of variables included in popular
cross-country datasets does not contain regressors that begin to satisfactorily characterize the basic growth
determinants in OECD countries.
This paper uses a novel dataset to test the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis in a
cross-section of countries. It is shown that for the full sample there exists evidence in
favor of the hypothesis. When we arbitrarily split the full sample into OECD and non-OECD
countries, we find no evidence in favor of the hypothesis for the OECD subsample, but strong
evidence for the non-OECD subsample. When we use Hansen's (2000) endogenous threshold
methodology we find that initial literacy rates and initial per capita output are threshold
variables that can cluster countries into three distinct regimes that obey different statistical
models. In particular, the regime with moderate initial per capita income but low initial
education exhibits substantially higher capital-skill complementarity than the regime with low
income and low education and the regime with high education. This cross-country nonlinearity in
capital-skill complementarity is consistent with the time-series nonlinearity found by Goldin
and Katz (1998) using U.S. manufacturing data, and promotes the view that the phenomenon maybe
a transitory one.
This paper examines whether nonlinearities in the aggregate production function can explain parameter
heterogeneity in the Solow (1956) growth regressions. Nonlinearities in the production technology are
introduced by replacing the commonly used Cobb-Douglas (CD) aggregated production specification with
the more general Constant-Elasticity-of-Substitution (CES) specification. We first justify our choice
of production function by showing that cross-country level regressions favor the CES over the CD
technology. Then, by using the endogenous threshold methodology of Hansen (2000) we show that the
Solow model with CES technology is consistent with the existence of multiple regimes.
This paper employs the data-sorting method developed by Hansen (2000) which allows
the data to endogenously select regimes using different variables. It is shown that
openness, as measured by the trade share to GDP, is a threshold variable that can
cluster middle-income countries into two distinct regimes that obey different statistical
models. Our result suggests that openness may not be as crucial in the growth process of
low and high-income countries but it is instrumental in identifying middle-income countries
into high and low-growth groups.
The two-level CES aggregate production function - that nests a CES into another CES
function - has recently been used extensively in theoretical and empirical applications of
macroeconomics. We examine the theoretical properties of this production technology and
establish existence and stability conditions of steady states under the Solow and Diamond growth
models. It is shown that in the Solow model the sufficient condition for a steady state is fulfilled
for a wide range of substitution parameter values. This is in sharp contrast with the two-factor
Solow model, where only an elasticity of substitution equal to one is sufficient to guarantee
the existence of a steady state. In the Diamond model, multiple equilibria can occur when the
aggregate elasticity of substitution is lower than the capital share. Moreover, it is shown that
for high initial levels of capital and factor substitutability, the effect of a further increase in a
substitution parameter on the steady state depends on capital-skill complementarity.
In the literature studying aggregate economies the aggregate elasticity of substitution (AES)
between capital and labor is often treated as a constant or "deep" parameter. This view contrasts
with the conjecture put forward by Arrow et al. (1961) that AES evolves over time and changes with
the process of economic development. This paper evaluates this conjecture in a simple dynamic multi-sector
growth model, in which AES is endogenously determined. Our findings support the conjecture, and in particular
demonstrate that AES tends to be positively related to the state of economic development, a result consistent
with recent empirical findings.
We construct a one-sector growth model where the technology is described by a Variable Elasticity of
Substitution (VES) production function. This framework allows the elasticity of factor substitution
to interact with the level of economic development. First, we show that the model can exhibit unbounded
endogenous growth despite the absence of exogenous technical change and the presence of non-reproducible
factors. Second, we provide some empirical estimates of the elasticity of substitution, using a panel of
82 countries over a 28-year period, which admit the possibilities of a VES aggregate production function
with an elasticity of substitution that is greater than one and consequently of unbounded endogenous growth.
Since Griliches (1969), researchers have been intrigued by the idea that physical
capital and skilled labor are relatively more complementary than physical capital
and unskilled labor. In this paper we consider the cross-country evidence for
capital-skill complementarity using a time-series, cross-section panel of 73
developed and less developed countries over a 25 year period. We focus on three
empirical issues. First, what is the best specification of the aggregate production
technology to address the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis. Second, how
should we measure skilled labor? Finally, is there any cross-country evidence in
support of the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis? Our main finding is that we
find some support for the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis in our macro
panel dataset.
It is often asserted that the more substitutable capital and labor are
in the aggregate production the more rapidly an economy grows. Recently
this has been formally confirmed within the Solow model by Klump and de
La Gradville (2000). This paper demonstrates that there exists no such
monotonic relationship between factor substitutability and growth in the
Diamond overlapping-generations model. In particular, we prove that, if
capital and labor are relatively substitutable, a country with a greater
elasticity of substitution exhibits lower per capital output and growth
in transit and in steady state.
Many models of exogenous and endogenous growth assume that aggregate output
is generated by a Cobb-Douglas specification for the aggregate production
function with labor, physical capital, and sometimes human capital as inputs.
In this paper we question the empirical relevance of the Cobb-Douglas
specification. We consider new World Bank data on GDP, the labor supply,
the stock of physical capital and educational attainment per worker for a
panel of 82 countries over a 28 year period from 1960-87. These data are
used to estimate a general CES production function specification for which
the Cobb-Douglas specification is a special case. We find that for the
entire 82 country-28 year panel we can reject a Cobb-Douglas specification
for the aggregate production function. When we divide our sample of 82
countries up into several subsamples based on initial per capita income
levels we find that we can continue to reject a Cobb-Douglas specification.
In particular, we find that physical capital and human capital adjusted
labor are more substitutable in the richest group of countries and less
substitutable in the poorest group of countries than would be implied by
a Cobb-Douglas specification. We discuss the implications of our findings
for the debate concerning convergence in income levels across countries as
well as for the plausibility of long-run endogenous growth due to the
specification of the production technology.
This chapter examines the relationship between the
rapid pace of trade and financial globalization
and the rise in income inequality observed in most
countries over the past two decades. The analysis finds
that technological progress has had a greater impact
than globalization on inequality within countries.
The limited overall impact of globalization reflects
two offsetting tendencies: whereas trade globalization
is associated with a reduction in inequality, financial
globalization—and foreign direct investment in
particular—
is associated with an increase in inequality.
It should be emphasized that these findings are
subject to a number of caveats related to data limitations,
and it is particularly difficult to disentangle the
effects of technology and financial globalization since
they both work through processes that raise the demand
for skilled workers. The chapter concludes that policies
aimed at reducing barriers to trade and broadening
access to education and credit can allow the benefits of
globalization to be shared more equally.
This paper discusses the relationship between economic development and one aspect of
property rights, a statute of limitations defining time limits on ownership claims.
The analysis centers on property rights in land. This paper argues that the available
development opportunities shape the time limits on ownership claims that maximize property
values, which in turn creates an inherent underlying tension among the owners of different
types of property in the economy. An implication for positive analysis is that economic growth
and successful development create demands for changing this dimension of property rights. Other
characteristics of the economy like the efficiency of the legal system, the quality of the public
sector bureaucracy, and corruption, also affect the value-maximizing time limitations for different
types of property. This paper discusses implications of these relationships for developing countries
and for property redevelopment in declining central cities in the US.
This paper reports findings of an experiment motivated by a dynamic labor market model
that considers the problem faced by an employer in making hiring decisions of workers of
different types. The question examined here is how quickly do employers learn about workers
ability through observing the their performance in the workplace. If prior opinions are weak,
the employer will quickly update any group-based stereotypes with information from the workplace.
Our experimental findings are twofold: first subjects (employers) learn fast and second priors are
hard to establish.
One of the main issues associated with recent
R&D-based growth models is their prediction
concerning "scale effects". That is, these models
ask the question as to whether economic growth is a
function of the level or the growth rate of
human capital at steady state. This note presents some
cross-country and historical time series evidence that
supports scale effects in the early stages of
development and non scale effects in the long-run.